Methodology
Data Sources
All data used by Risk and Route comes from publicly available APIs. We do not use proprietary data feeds.
| Source | Data | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| aisstream.io | Vessel positions (AIS) | Continuous |
| FRED (St. Louis Fed) | CPI, PPI, energy prices, trade data | Daily |
| Yahoo Finance | Commodity futures, shipping ETFs | 30 min (market hours) |
| GDELT Project | Geopolitical news events | 30 min |
| Bureau of Labor Statistics | Detailed CPI components | Daily |
Proprietary Indices
Route Disruption Index (RDI)
Measures aggregate shipping delay pressure across the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Hormuz. The index combines vessel traffic anomalies (z-scores against 30-day rolling baselines), average transit speed deviations, and estimated queue lengths. Chokepoints are weighted by their share of U.S. import exposure. Scale: 0-100, where 50 is baseline and higher values indicate greater disruption pressure.
Household Fuel Risk Index (HFRI)
Estimates consumer fuel price exposure by combining tanker disruption data from the Strait of Hormuz, WTI and Brent crude oil benchmark prices (z-scored against 90-day baselines), and gasoline CPI components. Scale: 0-100, where 50 is baseline.
Chokepoint Severity Score
Computed individually for each monitored chokepoint. Combines traffic deviation from 30-day mean, average vessel speed anomaly, percentage of traffic rerouting around the chokepoint, GDELT news severity scores, and recent price sensitivity of affected commodities. Scale: 0-100.
Limitations
- AIS data from aisstream.io is coastal-only. Vessels in mid-ocean may not be tracked.
- Commodity price data from Yahoo Finance is unofficial. We monitor for breakage and have backup sources.
- Correlation between shipping metrics and consumer prices is not causation. Many confounding factors (monetary policy, weather, labor markets, exchange rates) affect prices simultaneously.
- Our indices are designed to indicate direction and relative magnitude, not precise dollar amounts.
- CPI data from FRED and BLS is released with a 2-4 week lag. Our models project forward from the latest available data.
Attribution
When citing Risk and Route data or indices, please use: "Source: Risk and Route (riskandroute.com)"
Underlying data carries its own attribution requirements: "Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" for economic data; "Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics" for CPI components; "Source: AIS data via aisstream.io" for vessel tracking.