Accountability
Forecast Scorecard
Every forecast below is public, dated, and falsifiable. We write down the call, the threshold, and the deadline before the outcome is known, then mark it Hit or Miss when the date passes. Nothing gets edited after the fact. The Current column shows where each call stands against live data right now.
6
Total
6
Tracking
0
Resolved
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Hit Rate
| Prediction | Category | Current | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US regular gasoline national average stays between $3.75 and $4.30/gal through July 31, 2026. Issued 2026-06-20 at ~$4.05. Pump prices are sticky on the way down even as crude eases — the core thesis of the Checkout Index. | Fuel | $4.10/gal | Jul 31, 2026 | On track |
| The Checkout Index stays in the Elevated band (55-70) through August 31, 2026. Issued 2026-06-20. Fuel relief at the wellhead will not reach groceries this summer; the household basket stays under pressure. | Consumer | 66.1 | Aug 31, 2026 27d left | On track |
| Front-month WTI crude stays below $90/bbl through August 31, 2026. Issued 2026-06-20 with WTI ~$76.50. The April Hormuz risk premium has drained out; absent a sustained physical closure, supply is comfortable. | Energy | $77.54 | Aug 31, 2026 27d left | On track |
| Arabica coffee (KC=F) stays above 250 cents/lb through September 30, 2026 despite oil relief. Issued 2026-06-20 at ~275 c/lb. Coffee never moved through Hormuz; its strength is freight + harvest driven, so oil easing will not unwind it. | Commodity | 320c/lb | Sep 30, 2026 57d left | On track |
| Panama Canal daily transits average at least 32/day in Q3 2026 as the wet season refills Gatun Lake. Issued 2026-06-20. Wet-season rainfall should keep draft restrictions off; tracked against our Open-Meteo drought signal and AIS counts. | Chokepoint | ~7/day | Sep 30, 2026 57d left | Off track |
| No sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz (>7 continuous days) occurs in Q3 2026. Issued 2026-06-20. Tensions persist in headlines, but the physical chokepoint is expected to keep flowing. | Geopolitical | Open · sev 72 | Sep 30, 2026 57d left | On track |
No forecast has resolved yet — the first deadline is Aug 31, 2026 (27 days). On track / Off track reflects live data against a fixed threshold; the final Hit or Miss is stamped only when the target date passes. Thresholds and target dates are set at publication and are not revised.