The barrel and the basket
move on different clocks.
Crude, freight rates, and geopolitics reprice by the second. Your grocery run does not. Risk and Route measures that lag, tracing one line from the shipping lane to the shelf. Today the Checkout Index reads 69, about $10 a week above the five-year norm, while the Route Disruption Index sits at 55.
The Checkout Tracker
A typical household is paying about $10 a week above the five-year norm, roughly $7.54 of it from fuel and $2.46 from groceries.
Chokepoint Monitor
View all indices →Panama Canal
ModerateDrought and vessel-throughput driven; wet season easing draft pressure.
Suez Canal
ElevatedNews-driven; freight reroute pressure currently low.
Strait of Hormuz
ElevatedNews-dominant; oil risk has eased. No AIS coverage.
Latest Analysis
View all →The Feather Finally Fell. Coffee Went the Other Way.
Three weeks ago we said gas would drift down slowly while groceries stayed sticky. Gas has since dropped from $4.05 to $3.78, but coffee jumped to 337 cents and the Checkout Index barely moved. The household premium just rotated from fuel to food.
Oil Fell 27 Percent Since April. Your Gas and Grocery Bill Fell About 3.
Crude has dropped from $104 to $76 and our Route Disruption Index from 80.8 to 54, yet the pump sits at $4.05 and coffee at 275 cents. Here is why wellhead relief stalls before it reaches the checkout.
Coffee at 285 Cents a Pound: The Hormuz Crisis Hits a Commodity That Doesn't Travel Through Hormuz
How a blocked oil strait in the Persian Gulf is making your morning coffee the most expensive in 50 years.
Where the shock went, and where it stuck
Free weekly analysis tracing maritime risk into the prices you actually pay. Three charts. Three takeaways. One clear picture.